How to Trade False Breakouts
Range vs. BreakoutAfter a pair is capped or supported by a certain technical level and gets close to this level, range traders will try going for the opposite direction: buying the pair when it gets close to support or selling it when it gets close to resistance. A break out under support or above resistance will trigger breakout traders to ride on a sharp outwards move: sell the pair when it breaks support or buy it when it breaks resistance.
However, there are many cases of false breakouts. A pair dips below support but doesn’t go too far, or lifts its head above resistance without following through. Only a second attempt is the “real breakout” that breakout traders are waiting for.
The Big ReboundYet there are cases where the false breakout is immediately followed by a very strong rebound. One explanation for this move comes from the world of options: certain market participants have an interest in pushing the price to certain levels, triggering options such as barrier options, Double No Touch options and others. Other market participants want to avoid the same levels. These battles created interesting price action.
These moves aren’t backed by fundamentals and don’t represent any short term or long term trends – just interests by certain participants.
So, in such cases, some participants push the pair to a certain level, and after they won the battle, they let go. The result is that the fakeout is followed by a violent retracement.
So how can we trade this false breakout?1. Placing an order: One option is to place an order for the opposite direction just under the line in question and to go for the opposite direction. This is some kind of “extended range trading”.
2. Stalking: Another option is to stalk this breakout, but instead of trading in the direction of the breakout, go for the range trading direction after seeing that the pair isn’t really breaking.
MG/ Negocios e Inversiones